In the editorial of the bulletin of December 2010, BCE writes: «the banks have continued to increase gradually the component of the credit to the private of the they balance general, yet have to be shown capable of increasing the availability when it will increase subsequently the demand. Where necessary, to pick up such challenge would have to stop to play the profits, to apply to the market for strengthening mostly the really property component or for exploiting fully the measures of public support in favor of the recapitalization». The BCE don’t do any indication to the reverted on the banks of the Basilea 3 advent, but it is easy to realize that, if the Central Bank of Frankfurt thinks that the banks have necessity of increasing capitals already in the neighbour future ( for some even in the present ), all the more they are demonstrated needs to increase the shareholders’ equity when it will become operational the Basilea 3 accord. It is even well-grounded to think that the self-financing, realized through the retention of the profits, enough non-being to satisfy the demands of capitals, aside from the consideration that the banks won’t be able threshold excessively the payout annual, for not to depress excessively the courses of the stock exchange and from here a politics of distribution of dividents and, subsequently, a more metal applied to the capital market.

This considerations are confirmed by a study diffused in these days from the Boston Consulting Group, multinational company of consultation, that has calculated the necessity of fresh capitals for the European banks at least 275 billions of European. The study put the lead Germany and, to follow, Italy and France, besides other European countries,  in particular them with risk of default.

Seems confirmed what is already notice and that is that the banks have and they will need more sharolders’ equity, above all the major, that are quoted in the stock exchange, and here is the delicate point, because the financial markets are not wells without bottomless pits to which does applied too to improve it even if there are the best conditions. To plan some sound forecasts they need any fundamental considerations.

The BCE affirms, as above said, that the banks «have to be shown capable to increase the availability when demand will subsequently increase». In other words: if, intending go out from the economy crisis that has struck the world from the end of the 2007, we want that the European economic recovery has a reserved and permanent start, it is necessary that the banks assist the enterprises of the non financial sectors, increasing the interventions of the credit function and, already for this, have to be supplied of means with pressures on the stock exchanges. But in stock exchanges there are even the non financial enterprises, that will draw directly to the financial markets with them offers of stock new issues. The risk is a block and a competition in the increased demands, that won’t be able to increase the rates of interest and here they will have determinant importance the estimated pay-out policies of the banks and non financial companies; because if is true that the shares, otherwise from the obligations, don’t foresee a rate of interest, the savers don’t do many differences, because they are waited returns as dividend not less than the rates of the obligations, besides increases from capital gains; otherwise, they refuse the proposals of additions in capital. Will be a harsh competition! But it doesn’t end here. The states, above all that already indebted and charged with periodical interest, have to increase the issues of bonds, because hardly they are able to effect adjust fiscal reforms and they will have to however face, therefore, the greater burden of interests for the increase in the rates on the markets of saving. The fear, all other that unfounded, is an effect of crowding-out of the national debt in the comparisons of the private indebtedness; but to the price of greater interests on the public budgets, because on the financial and monetary markets  it is in force the rule of the “the best wins” in terms of interest. Then, the European banks  will obey to  face a greater request for credit worthiness by not listed firms, that to go out from the crisis, they have to realize some new investments in fixed capital technologically more advanced and expensive restructurings and reorganizations for productions, all in competition with the other quoted society and demands of the states, incapable to contain and reduce expenses. But, the resources are limited, because the capital is not what of the monetary masses pumped in the systems by the central banks, but what is produced by the saving, that, to his time, it comes from the income, or, better, from its growth in tangible but non nominal realities. The monetary and speculative increases are deceptive, because they create only bubbles, that sooner or later burst, as has shown the crisis begun to fine 2007. Growth wants more tons than say wheat, of steel, of copper, of kilometers of cloth, of cars, more services than quality, et cetera, not masses of dollars, of Euro or of yen. And here the risk is a dangerous spin of the system. The bankers deny that there will be for them necessity of additions in capital. Hope that are right, but seems an optimism of façade non coherent with prudent projections. This considerations are done without considering that the banks would not wish for financing the application for credit of the private firms, because, by now sick chronicles of finance to damages of the economy, would  prefer to continuing in the their financial speculative or activity support to the speculation, that, with the sophistication of the financial engineering, has filled the portfolio of them was by derivative products banks and “junk bonds”, that animate the bubbles. The phenomenon is known: if not severe rules are not set to international level to remove the unhealthy speculation which infects the markets with dangerous and painful relapses on the economy, all will have been useless.

Cleary to reason that the hunger of capitals grips  Europe and capitals come from the real saving. Probably that Europe has not suitable availability. We wonder, then, from where is able to come the flow of necessary capitals and that the domestic markets are not able to support. Even here the answer is obvious: from the countries that have accumulated petrodollars and eurodollars, divert from the world of the oil. The black gold has become more important and precious than the yellow gold! And on the point are met two schools of thought: what, with reference to “inverse holism”  and to a globalization of the finance “at all costs ” wishes entries of capitals of any origin and, of against, what fears that Europe goes to meet a subordination toward the Arabic countries or China. Here the choice from economic becomes politics, because would be able be in playing the Europe freedom. It deals to know if the price I’ve still got a lot of bills to pay is bearable or not. However we must  forget that the freedom has not price.